Few will argue with Emmott that "despite the understandable focus after September 11 2001 on the Middle East and Central Asia, the most important long-term trend in the world affairs does indeed remain the shift in economic and political power to Asia." But we aren't quite talking long-term here, are we? Is ten years long-term in a historical sense?
Rapid growth and rising prosperity in Asia, which signal the "end of Western dominance of Asia", "will change the relative balance of power in the world". But what is important is "Asia is becoming an arena of balance-of-power politics, with no clear leader". Hence the rivalry and the inevitable potential for conflict. So managing the relationship between the three "promises to be one of the most important tasks in global affairs during the next decade and beyond..."
What makes the intra-Asian rivalry serious is that Asians see little purchase in the idea of Asia. It is more of a cartographer's creation and has been a Western or European concept. Asians are more driven by their own perceptions rooted in their civilisational psyches. Perhaps the most telling quote in the whole book is from a senior official in India's MEA who told the author, "The thing you have to understand is that both of us [India and China] think that the future belongs to us. We can't both be right."
On the three countries focused, Emmott knows Japan best and gives a panoramic account of its evolution in the last two decades. After the hubris of the eighties and nemesis of the nineties, Japan has reformed somewhat but must do more. This is needed to improve productivity so as to pay for its ageing population as working age numbers dwindle. He recalls from personal experience the arrogance of Japan's leaders in the eighties, which is now gone but which can be reemerging among the Chinese, who are currently racing ahead.
To lessen the danger of conflict arising out of the rivalry between Asian giants, Emmott outlines a wish list of what needs doing. The US has to fix the NPT, which is broken because of the exception made for India and the lack of progress on nuclear disarmament. It has also to lead in combating climate change by working for emission reduction targets for all, including itself. It should start a fund to help poor countries bear the cost of new technology to reduce energy intensity and harmful emissions.
An even bigger agenda is set for multilateral institutions and forums, which must be restructured so as to include the emerging Asian powers, without which these entities will be meaningless. The list is formidable "" G8, UN Security Council, and proper shareholding and voting powers in multilateral bodies like the IMF and the World Bank.
Action points are also laid out for the big three. India should settle with its neighbours and lower tariffs for them and China should at least become more transparent, it being pointless to call for more democracy. The list for Japan is the longest. It should bury the past, say sorry for war atrocities committed by the imperial army, appoint a commission for fixing compensation for the atrocities and put the controversial Yasukuni shrine under public control. The US and its wartime allies should re-examine the status of the Tokyo trials, which have been described as "profoundly misconceived".
There can be no argument that emerging Asia will matter more and more but there seems to have been a glaring omission in not examining in detail South Korea. It is already a developed country and a member of the OECD. It is at the cutting edge of technology embodied in its firms like Samsung and Hyundai. Should the two Koreas unite it will be a nation of over 70 million educated people who will form a large domestic market and earn the country a demographic dividend. Economic clout, a strong sense of its own history and fierce nationalism make South Korea itself an Asian power which needs to be counted. Should unification come, the country's importance will be even greater.
RIVALS
HOW THE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN CHINA, INDIA AND JAPAN WILL SHAPE OUR NEXT DECADE
Bill Emmott
Allen Lane
314 pages; £20
