India Coronavirus Dispatch: Bigger peak likely if safety norms are flouted

Jammu's hospitals ill-equipped, sharp drop in new cases nationwide, vaccine for kids still far away--news on how the country is coping with the pandemic

Next peak possible: The expert panel which said that India passed its Covid peak in September has also estimated that if measures such as wearing face masks, washing hand and social distancing are not maintained, the country could be headed for a bigger peak around November. However, the panel has also estimated that if the public continues to adhere to precautions, India could be left with around 20,000 cases by February 2021. This, however, is a best case scenario which assumes that 100 per cent of the population would adhere to protective measures. However, if measures don't continue, experts say, the number of active cases in the country could shoot up 2.5 million. The most concerning fact is that the biggest impact would be seen on mortalities which would also see a spike if people let their guard down. Read more here

Jammu Covid hospitals: Jammu’s Government Medical College, a premier institute that caters to the entire division, has been in disarray since the pandemic hit. Even as Covid cases surged in the area, the hospital has been plagued by manpower and infrastructural shortages. Further, the hospital has also had to deal with staff falling ill with the disease, doctors reluctant to treat Covid-19 patients, bureaucratic interference, inadequate oxygen storage and disruption in oxygen supply. Families say that even as patients slipped into critical states, a severe shortage of medical staff meant they were largely left unattended. Smaller hospitals in the area have also been facing issues of oxygen supply. Administrators of several hospitals say they do not have space to install extra ventilators or technicians to run them. Read more here

Delhi hospitals: The Delhi health department has asked all hospitals in the city to keep an eye on co-infections of Covid with other seasonal diseases. A letter was issued in this context since the season is known for a rise in cases of dengue, malaria and seasonal influenza. Hospitals and district officials have been asked to follow the Union ministry’s guidelines on co-infections. What makes the situation more complex is the fact that the seasonal diseases will mimic the symptoms of Covid-19. This, officials have noted, may lead to difficulty in diagnosis. That the seasonal diseases can co-exist with Covid makes treatment strategies complex, too. Read more here

In Numbers

Lowest new cases since July: In a first since July, India has reported less than 50,000 new Covid-19 cases on Monday. A part of the reason for this sharp drop is also the fact that it’s a Monday. Mondays always see a dip in the number of new Covid cases because of low testing numbers during the weekend. On Sunday 859,000 tests were conducted. Previously when the number of tests conducted fell within the range of 800,000-900,000, India was reporting well over 60,000 daily cases. When India was last reporting daily case numbers in the range of 45,000-50,000, the number of daily tests was in the range of 400,000-500,000. These numbers indicate that India is no longer reporting the highest number of cases in the world. The US, on the other hand, has been reporting a higher number of cases amid a resurgence of infections. Read more here

Understanding Covid

Vaccine for children: Experts suggest that an effective Covid vaccine for children is still further away than one for adults. Some are predicting that a vaccine for children could take months even after one for adults has been manufactured. The primary reason for this is that Covid-19 vaccine trials have focused exclusively on adults so far. This was previously pointed out by experts who said this will have a bearing on children wanting to go back to school. Further, even as the rest of the world will be able to avail vaccines, children will remain a reservoir of infections. This will threaten the safety of the rest of the population as well. What makes vaccines for children a tricky case is the fact that their immune systems work very differently from that of an adult. Read more here