India isn't ready for another Covid wave; confidence about impact misplaced

Without a clear sense of how and where the second wave was most virulent, country can't really figure out what a third will look like.

Memories of India’s devastating second wave of Covid-19 are slowly receding. The pandemic has once again fallen out of the headlines; malls and mountain resorts are crowded with shoppers and tourists. Business activity is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, as it had been just before the second wave hit in March. In fact, just like then, many Indians seem to believe the worst of the pandemic is over.

But we can’t be sure about that at all. Epidemiological models that predicted the second wave suggest that another, shallower wave might hit India as soon as this month. And the country