Mystery of the missing millions: Why UN projects higher India population

Its estimate of India's population by the end of the decade is 41 mn higher than TGPP's 1.47 billion

Earlier this year, the United Nations’ World Population Prospects study projected that India’s population would be over 1.51 billion by 2030. This was 41.1 million higher than the Indian government’s Technical Group on Population Projections (TGPP) estimate of 1.47 billion by the end of the decade in its latest report from July 2020.

The roots of this 41-million gap lie in historical inaccuracies. While the growth rates projected by India and the UN have moved in tandem since the 1960s, the UN had overestimated India’s population between 1951 and 1961.

A population bulletin by the international body from