Why it's so hard to detect the effect of global warming on monsoon rains

Even the most sophisticated climate models struggle to simulate physical processes such as convection and evaporation that drive rainfall activity

The devastating floods in the Indian state of Kerala are a stark reminder of the vulnerability of the world’s most densely populated regions to weather and climate phenomena. In addition to the tragic loss of several hundred lives, widespread floods driven by unusually high and persistent monsoon rains have severely impacted the region’s fragile infrastructure and displaced more than a million people. Only in recent days has the Indian government been able to understand the full extent of an estimated $3 billion worth of damage.

It is now typical that the aftermath of severe weather events is marked by questions about