Covid-19 fallout: UBS pegs FY21 India growth at -0.4%, a four decade low

The worst-case scenario, assumes that coronavirus (Covid-19) will continue to spread, possibly in waves, all the way through to mid-2021

Weaker-than-expected economic activity due to the nation-wide lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic and a looming global recession is likely to hit Indian economy hard with UBS expecting real GDP to contract to -0.4 per cent in financial year 2020-21 (FY21). The global research and brokerage house has been trimming its expectations gradually and had earlier forecast a growth of 2.5 per cent.

As a base case, UBS expects current mobility restrictions to remain in place until mid-May and then get lifted, and activity to get largely back to normal by end-June. In the second scenarios, UBS expects mobility restrictions