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Global trade growth likely to further diminish in the ongoing quarter: WTO

After falling 2.1% in September, year-on-year, India's export rose 17.9% last month

Aashish Aryan  |  New Delhi 

trade deficit
trade deficit

growth is likely to further diminish in the ongoing quarter, shows the latest data from the Organization (WTO). This might mean a hit for Indian export growth, which had started to look up in October, following a contraction in September.

The index for WTO’s latest World Outlook Indicator (WTOI) for October-December, issued on Monday, stood at 98.6, the lowest since October 2016. All component indices are down. It was 100.3 for July-September; the baseline is 100 and indicates growth in line with medium-term trends. A reading higher than 100 suggests above-trend growth; below 100 indicates the reverse.

After falling 2.1 per cent in September, year-on-year, India's export rose 17.9 per cent last month. A slowing in could hit our export in November and December.

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The continued moderation in the WTOI index was driven by steady decline in the export orders index, at 96.6. This remains below-trend and is approaching the weakest point, recorded in 2012 during the euro zone crisis. Indices for automobile production and sales (96.9), (93.9), and (97.2) have moved from on-trend to below-trend. (100) and container port throughput (101.2) have dipped but remain on-trend. The latest results are consistent with WTO's downgraded outlook for global trade, issued in September amid escalating trade tensions and tighter credit conditions in important markets.

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The revised forecast anticipated slower trade expansion to 3.9 per cent in 2018 and further to 3.7 per cent in 2019, from 4.7 per cent in 2017.

First Published: Tue, November 27 2018. 05:30 IST