Rising trade deficit, crude to maintain pressure on India's external sector

Some gains likely from US-China tariff war, with exports to China rising; softening of inward FDI remains a worry

Global growth prospects have eased up, buffeted by successive trade restrictive measures from the US and China. IMF data from the World Economic Outlook Update released in January projects a 3.5 per cent rate for 2019, a 0.2 per cent dip from last October’s projections. There is no trigger in the global economy to counter these measures, but enough to exacerbate those. 

The immediate risks are of a no-deal exit by Britain from the European Union by the end of March, and successive elections in several large emerging economies other than India. These are Indonesia, South Africa and Nigeria. However,