We'll win easily, says UPA

Markedly more relaxed than all of last week, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) today asserted that it had the numbers to clear the trust vote.

"The government is going to sail through the trust vote. Wait and see," said at least two cabinet ministers.

Four BJP MPs from Karnataka "" Manorama Madhvaraj, Basvana Goud Patil, HT Sangliana and Manjunath Kannur "" have reportedly pledged support to help the government clear the vote, top sources in government said.

They also claimed that three Shiv Sena MPs and three from the Akali Dal had also promised to vote for the government. Of them, one, the Shiv Sena MP from Parbhani, had pledged his support to the UPA yesterday.

Although the Congress claimed it had more than 277 MPs in a house of 545, the effective strength of those present and voting is unlikely to cross 540. Of them, 15 MPs could abstain leading to a halfway mark of 263. The UPA is, thus, calculating it will have 14 more MPs than needed.

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and Mizo National Front MP Vanlalzawma today said they would abstain from voting during the confidence motion in Parliament tomorrow, reports PTI.

But there were other reasons for the government's confidence. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and putative Prime Minister LK Advani clearly said that his party did not want to destabilise the government, only defeat it.

"Whether elections are announced tomorrow or six months later, it really doesn't matter. The point is that the government is in the Intensive Care unit (ICU)," said LK Advani.

BJP MPs interpreted this to mean that the party was not ready to pull the rug from under the government's feet just yet for fear that the biggest beneficiary of this would be Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati. Top BJP leaders confessed they wanted to do nothing that would hasten the exit of disgruntled MPs from their party to the Mayawati fold.

Although the Left, which withdrew support to the government last month, was not as charitably disposed towards the government as the BJP "" opening speaker Mohammad Saleem's speech was trenchant on the Congress for the trail of broken promises it had left behind in the four years of its association with the Left parties "" the attack was reserved for the prime minister.

Not once was Congress President Sonia Gandhi's name mentioned by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the biggest of the Left parties in Parliament, suggesting it could revive the relationship later provided Manmohan Singh was not in the picture.

The Congress on its part repeatedly referred to the role played by the four Left parties in 1977 and 1988 (when they shared a platform with the BJP), asking them not to repeat the same mistake. The prime minister referred with evident respect to two CPI M stalwarts, Jyoti Basu and Harkishan Singh Surjeet, suggesting they could be the model for younger leaders.

In his speech Advani was critical of the Congress but not of the United States. He said he would have been happy to do a nuclear deal with the US but not one that made India "subservient".

But BJP MPs said his speech lacked bite. The confidence vote ends tomorrow with the prime minister's reply. Rahul Gandhi and P Chidambaram will be fielded by the Congress tomorrow. 
 

WHY THE UPA MAY SURVIVE

• Four disgruntled BJP MPs from Karnataka to jump ship
  
  
• Four Shiv Sena MPs ready to abstain, provided they are assured seats in the next election
  
  
• Three Akali Dal MPs also ready to abstain
  
  
• BJP MPs: Our party is not for destabilising the government.
  
  
• Left MPs: We are against the prime minister; not Sonia Gandhi. He is for the United States; she is a progressive