Why a normal monsoon forecast is not a guarantee of economic outcomes

A normal monsoon forecast however does not say anything on the spread or the arrival, progress and departure of the rainfall which all have a bearing on crop outcomes

Agriculture, particularly the kharif season, has always been a matter of interest as it drives farmers’ income. Farm distress was exacerbated in 2018 due to high supplies which led to prices coming down and made it a major issue. But the starting point is always the monsoon and hence a forecast even before the season starts is important. While the IMD forecast was held sacrosanct in the past, the emergence of a private forecast by Skymet, often before the official one has grabbed attention. This time the Skymet has projected the rains to