A question of transitivity: Why predicting electoral outcomes is hazardous

Voter behaviour is as unpredictable as the crow on a tree. You don't know in which direction it will fly off

The context for this article is the focus on 2023. Forget everything else; it's going to be the nine assembly elections due next year. These are coming on top of the six in 2022 in which the BJP lost two and has a coalition in one.

But why does a political party which wins in one state lose in another even when elections are held within a few months of each other?

Political pundits give all sorts of reasons in terms of anti-incumbency, choice of candidates, constituency-specific factors like caste, corruption, economic factors etc. These are all correct, no doubt.