Tamil Nadu assembly polls: AIADMK-11, DMK-11, Dhinakaran, Kamal Haasan flop

Future of T T V Dhinakaran and debutant Kamal Haasan in question as both could not win a single seat.

Early trends show the ruling AIADMK, led by Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami, and its M K Stalin-led rival DMK, getting 11 seats each in the total 22 assembly constituency bypolls. The other major question is future of T T V Dhinakaran and Kamal Haasan, who made debut, as both the leaders could not mark their presence in any of the seats.

For Chief Minister Palaniswami, the assembly numbers are certainly good news, while the Lok Sabha numbers are not good as it is leading only in three seats. DMK is leading in 35 of 38 seats.

Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats in all, of which the election in Vellore was cancelled by the President of India after the Election Commission submitted report alleging malpractices by one party.

With 114 MLAs including the speaker, the AIADMK has to win just four seats, while retaining a few disgruntled MLAS to cross the half-way mark of 117 in a house of 234.

But now that the number may cross 10, going by the early leads, the ruling faction is safe as the number is expected to reach 124 which will help them to complete the term, ending in 2021.

The recently formed political parties of T T V Dhinakaran and Kamal Haasan were nowhere in the picture, raising questions about there political future. Dhinakaran is a sitting MLA. After moving out from AIADMK, he floated AMMK and fielded candidates in both Lok Sabha and Assembly seats.

For actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan this election was his political debut. He floated Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and fielded candidates in bypolls for Lok Sabha. The general expectation before the election was that both of them would emerge as important leaders.

The ruling AIADMK has 113 members (excluding the Speaker) out of a total of 213 seats so far, while the DMK-led alliance has 97 MLAs, including eight from the Congress and one from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Dhinakaran is the lone MLA from AMMK, the party he founded after being expelled from AIADMK. With 22 new members being elected, the half-way mark has gone up to 117.

The Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK government can consider itself safe if it manages to win 10 seats. Of the 113 members, the loyalty of at least five was said to be with the Dhinakaran group and the Assembly Speaker has moved a show-cause notice seeking to disqualify four of them. 

Stalin has to win at least 21 seats to dislodge the present Government.