With only the last phase of polling of the seven scheduled left, a recent report by Ambit Capital suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win 190-210 seats on a pan-India basis.
The report, co-authored by Ritika Mankar Mukherjee and Sumit Shekhar of Ambit Capital, pegs the total seats for Narendra Modi – led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the current form between 220 - 240, with the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) causing a big dent in the total tally. The electoral alliance between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is certain to dent BJP’s seat count in UP, Ambit says.
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“Our meetings with politicians, small businesses and academicians in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh suggest that the BJP is headed for a big loss in the state. With the Modi wave clearly ebbing and the Samajwadi Party – Bahujan Samaj Party (SP – BSP) alliance having more than 40 - 50 per cent voteshare, the BJP is set to secure only 30-35 seats,” the report says.
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This in turn, Ambit Capital believes, means that the NDA will have to sign-up at least four large regional parties post poll to form the government at the Centre. Based on their ground checks, the brokerage does not rule out the possibility of Mayawati-led BSP joining hands with Narendra Modi - led NDA in a post poll alliance.
By vote share in the 2014 general election, BSP is India's third-largest national party, though it failed to win any seats in the Lok Sabha in the previous general election in 2014. According to the Ambit report, the SP and BSP combine had 51 per cent voteshare as per the CY09 election data and 42 per cent voteshare as per the CY14 elections data.
"Assuming that CY19 is likely to be a year when the Modi wave has ebbed and allocating a two-third weightage to the 2014 outcome and a one-third weightage to the 2009 outcome imply that the combined voteshare of the SP and BSP in CY14 could amount to 45 per cent. Applying the same methodology, BJP’s voteshare suggests could fall to 34.2 per cent per cent in CY19 as compared to 42.6 per cent in CY14 and 17.5 per cent in CY09," the Ambit report says.
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Analysts at CLSA, too in a recent report, projected a victory for Modi – led NDA in the 2019 general election, albeit with reduced majority, helped by the following wind provided by the assertive stance he took on the Pakistan issue.
With the penultimate phase of polling held on May 12 across six states and in Delhi, voting is over in nearly 89 per cent of the 543 constituencies. The last phase of voting will take place on May 19 for the remaining 59 seats. The outcome of the general elections 2019 will be known on May 23.