Afghanistan: The warlords who will decide whether civil war is likely

The Taliban will be on uncertain ground as they declare legitimacy, but no pretender to Afghanistan's troubled throne is likely to offer a national alternative

Unsurprisingly, the Taliban’s rapid takeover of power across Afghanistan has prompted headlines about a renewed “civil war”. This is misleading, however.

“Civil war” implies a situation where an insurgent movement is taking on a ruling government. But in 2001, it was not just the US-backed Northern Alliance that removed the Taliban from Kabul – other local commanders and political leaders were challenging their authority too.

And in 2021, the Taliban swept to power by offering local groups incentives to cooperate or persuading them to stand aside. Now that the Taliban try to establish a government and ruling institutions, it