Fed hike, China hold: What to keep your economic eye on next week

The combination of narrowing rate differentials and continued trade uncertainty means the yuan will face renewed pressure

Three points on the week ahead are easy to predict. The Federal Reserve will hike rates. The People’s Bank of China will not. Trade tensions will persist.

What this means for the yuan -- only recently back from the threshold of seven to the dollar -- is harder to say. Pressure from both rate differentials and trade, though, will be for a weaker currency. Signs of a significant drop would have the PBOC delving into their toolkit to provide support.

If the Fed doesn’t hike interest rates for the eighth time in the current cycle at its meeting Wednesday, that would be