It doesn't feel like a crisis yet, but the trade slowdown has already begun

The fact that previous trade slumps have often coincided with US recessions doesn't mean the coming one will

One of the paradoxes of this year’s trade tensions is that in many parts of the world, it doesn’t yet feel like a crisis.

For all the turmoil in emerging-market currencies, equity investors in major markets seem ... relaxed? The milestone passed with little fanfare, but the S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 2,914.04 on August 29. The day before, India’s Nifty 50 did the same. Other indexes in developed markets are only moderately below their January peaks.

With President Donald Trump expected to start implementing the next round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods within hours,