Winter's coming, it may not be cool one for oil market after Iran sanction

Producers may not have enough spare capacity to offset the impact of sanctions

Winter is coming, and the oil market is starting to look pretty tight. 

Iran’s oil exports are down by almost a third since President Donald Trump said in April that the U.S. would withdraw from the nations’ nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions. They slid below 2 million barrels a day in August and continued to deteriorate in the first half of September, creating a build-up of crude held in tankers floating offshore.  

On paper there is enough spare capacity among other OPEC producers and Russia to offset falling Iranian supply — but what exists on paper and what can be brought into