Why equity investors should brace for more volatility and negative returns

The S&P500 rallied from a level of 112, beginning 1982, to its peak of 1,500 in March 2000 - largely led by a steady rise in the underlying earnings multiple

Equity investors should brace for greater volatility and negative returns as bond yields inch-up in the US, the world’s largest bond and equity market. Long-term data points to a negative correlation between yield on the 10-year US government bond and the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of the S&P500 index — the US’ most traded equity index.

The valuation multiple (price-to-earnings) expands and stock prices rise when bond yields decline, and the cycle is reversed when yields rise.

For example, the S&P500 P/E multiple, on a trailing 12-month basis, had fallen to as low as 7x in the early 1982s, after US bond yields