At just about the same time that India’s economic growth has started to pick up from the recent trough, monetary conditions have begun to tighten. For those dependent on the bond market, conditions have already tightened sharply, with interest rates up by nearly a per cent and a half. They are no longer a minority: in the last financial year, nearly five trillion of the seven trillion rupees of incremental credit was funded outside the banking system. Even bank funded entities may now expect higher rates, with the bellwether State Bank of India (SBI) now raising lending rates by twenty basis points.
Bond yields have risen so sharply that an observer only looking at bond yields would assume the economy was in crisis. The move in the last six months has been one of the worst in recent memory, and reminiscent of the “crisis quarters” in 2013, 2008 and 2009.
“Explanations” for this move range from attempts to re
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