Another referendum, now

The world economy cannot afford this Brexit shambles

Barely a day after suffering the greatest parliamentary loss in almost 100 years, the United Kingdom’s Conservative government, led by Prime Minister Theresa May, survived a vote of no-confidence in the House of Commons by 325 votes to 306 — a relatively comfortable 19-vote majority. This was generally understood to be likely, as both her Eurosceptic colleagues within the Conservative party and her supporters in the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland had already ruled out voting against her government. Yet, Ms May was definitely weaker by the result earlier, when her painfully negotiated Brexit deal had been placed before the House and was resoundingly rejected by a margin of 230 votes. Ms May, speaking outside Number 10 Downing Street shortly after the no-confidence vote, indicated the usual — that she was still in charge, that Brexit would happen, and she would deliver it. But the path to an orderly Brexit is looking more and more complicated. There is a real and worrying increase in the chances of a “no-deal” Brexit, in which the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal in a few weeks, a fear underlined in the response of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. 

It is incumbent upon all major figures in British politics to put aside petty considerations and focus on avoiding the worst-case scenario of a no-deal exit. This would be catastrophic not just for Britain and Europe but also for a world economy already pushed to the edge by doubts about oil supply and the US-China trade war. But the problem is that no faction within British politics is interested in any form of compromise. The hardliners within Ms May’s Conservatives are willing to see a no-deal exit as long as their long-cherished dream of leaving the EU comes to pass. The Unionists from Northern Ireland, steeped in their province’s decades of sectarian rivalry, want to avoid Northern Ireland from being treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom at all costs. This severely limits the number of deals available to Ms May, as the UK will never countenance a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which continues to be a member of the EU. For the Irish border to remain open, either Northern Ireland must stay in harmony with the EU’s laws, or all of Britain must. Any deal which accepts this basic fact, however, looks more or less like the one Ms May negotiated — which Parliament has resoundingly rejected.

It is increasingly clear that, if Ms May’s deal is off the table and if a no-deal Brexit is to be avoided at all cost, then the UK will have to stay with the European Union. Given the fact that no member of Parliament can afford to ignore, however, the result of the 2016 referendum, there is no alternative but to take the problem back to the people. A crisis caused by a referendum can be solved only by a referendum. It is incumbent on all parties — especially the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn, which so far has been impressive only in its short-term and cynical fixation on provoking a general election — to ensure that Ms May sees she has no option but to call a second referendum.