BJP's knockout punch: Notion of Opposition unity has been discredited

Grand Alliance in tatters in Bihar

The coming together of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar is unquestionably a seismic event in Indian politics. Mr Kumar’s election in 2015, in coalition with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by his old rival, Lalu Prasad, was a humiliating defeat for the BJP. Now that the “grand coalition” of Bihar lies in tatters, the BJP has managed to reverse that defeat and, in the process, has justified its original, albeit questionable, claim during that Assembly election that it could provide stability. The most important fallout of the dissolution of the JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance is that the very notion of Opposition unity has been discredited. After the Bihar election the idea took hold that a united Opposition could stand in the way of the all-conquering juggernaut that was Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and the BJP. This idea appeared to have a robust political history, too. In the past there have been instances of the Congress, when it had appeared similarly unstoppable, being upstaged by a more united Opposition. But the crucial requirement for the survival of such grand coalitions is that the various leaders of the Opposition are firmly together. In spite of the apparent bonhomie that accompanied their victory, the alliance between Mr Prasad and Mr Kumar became untenable after the string of corruption cases against the former.

A flurry of tweets by senior BJP leaders, including Mr Modi, welcomed Mr Kumar’s resignation and hailed it as his joining the fight against corruption. It is clear then that the BJP has completed its rout of the Opposition by offering support to Mr Kumar in Bihar. The issue on which Mr Kumar parted ways with Mr Prasad is also worth noting: Corruption allegations against Mr Prasad’s family, especially his son Tejashwi, who was the deputy chief minister of Bihar. What is important is that it demonstrates the political salience of such allegations. In the past, several other Opposition leaders across different states, such as Congress’ Virbhadra Singh, the longest serving chief minister of Himachal Pradesh, and Bhupinder Singh Hooda of Haryana, have suffered politically after investigations revealed irregularities. The BJP’s rise as the single pole of Indian polity and the absolute decimation of Opposition across the country is not just because opposing leaders were caught up in corruption cases. In Assam, for example, the BJP was astute in picking Sarbananda Sonowal, formerly of the Asom Gana Parishad, and Himanta Biswa Sarma, formerly of the Congress, as its leaders. In other states, such as Arunachal Pradesh, there were other machinations that finally led to the BJP acquiring power. The systematic and sustained discrediting of the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi and the BJP’s alleged role in driving a wedge between Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son, Akhilesh Yadav, before the Uttar Pradesh elections are other cases in point.

To be sure, the recently concluded presidential election was another example of this undermining of a possible grand alliance in the next general elections in 2019. For instance, the senior Yadav chose to go against his son to support Ram Nath Kovind, the BJP’s candidate, over Meira Kumar, the Opposition’s choice. Mr Kovind’s election was marked by considerable cross-voting in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Goa. Under Mr Modi, the ability to shift the narrative from regional identity and Opposition unity – the grand coalition’s touchstone in the Bihar Assembly election – to corruption is an important facet of the BJP’s strategy in its expansion into those parts of India where it has not hitherto been strong.