Budget 2018: Hoping for a gap between the populist rhetoric and reality

Population-scale welfare programmes are extremely dangerous in the magnitude of expenditures involved

The last Budget before an election is a time of fiscal pressure. At first blush, the Budget numbers look reassuringly good. The primary deficit is projected to decline. Total expenditure is projected to grow by 10.1 per cent, which is actually lower than the 12.3 per cent growth of last year.

Upon closer examination, however, we see areas for concern. The expenditure on bank recapitalisation has not been recognised in the Budget. Gross tax revenue growth, which was 13.4 per cent last year, is projected to go up to 16.7 per cent, which may be hard to achieve. The situation on