Covid isn't over

The worst may be over, but the threat persists

US President Joe Biden’s upbeat declaration that the Covid-19 pandemic is over and World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ relatively cautious assessment that “the end is in sight” should not lull Indian health administrations at the Centre and the states into complacency. As things stand, the medical fraternity is prepared to concede that the worst may be over. This is certainly borne out by the numbers: The recorded number of new cases has fallen sharply from a peak average of 300,000 in January this year to a little under 5,000 on September 23, and the death rate had dropped sharply to a seven-day average of 26 from over 4,000 in May 2021. These encouraging statistics are primarily on account of the accelerated vaccine programme and the milder Omicron variants — some 32 of them — that are doing the rounds. But if the threat of Covid is muted now, it cannot be deemed to have disappeared. In fact, visibility on the end of Covid can only be described as blurred.

Several facts militate against a relaxation of Covid protocols, including the vaccination programme. Though the Omicron variants that are afflicting people now are more infectious, they are also milder and carry lower mortality risks, but the possibility of any one of them turning lethal remains. This apart, virologists are at pains to underline the fact that India is still dealing with the deadly Delta variant, which caused the maximum number of deaths in 2021. This implies that pressing ahead with the vaccination programme must remain a priority. India has attracted much global praise for this programme, but would still need to continue to focus in this area. Doing so is important because those cohorts of older and immunocompromised people and frontline health workers who received their third shots (known as a “precautionary dose”) between January and April would stand in need of a fourth dose, which virologists recommend. But with government resources still focused on achieving full vaccination coverage, and administering the precautionary dose to the eligible population, this is unlikely to be a point of focus just yet.

The recurring challenges impart a new meaning to the cliché of “learning to live with the virus”. Where most of India has sought to interpret this as abandoning basic safety protocols of masks and social distancing, public health specialists emphasise the importance of persisting with these practices, especially among those who live with elderly people. A brisk and sustained public interest campaign on these lines by the government would be helpful. This apart, the Covid vaccines that are currently being administered offer some degree of protection against the alpha and delta versions but have diminished efficacy against the new variants. This implies that the government needs to work closely with the pharma industry to undertake studies and develop vaccines that offer long-lasting protection against a range of variants. At the same time, sustained genome sequencing remains vital to ensure that the country is better prepared so that a fourth or any subsequent wave of Covid turns out to be a mild breaker.