Since the start of 2022, clouds have been darkening over the economic horizon as short-term growth prospects dim, energy costs rise, the trade balance turns more negative, the fiscal balance deteriorates, portfolio capital flows out, the rupee drops, companies get more cautious, markets turn nervous, and consumers feel the inflation pinch. There are proximate causes for all of these, many of them global in origin, but it would be a mistake to focus on just them. Longer-term trends need to be understood.
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