G20's Ukraine problem

War rather than multilateral issues dominates

The war in Ukraine and the deepening geopolitical fault-lines as a result of it appear to have hijacked the G20 agenda. Over the past fortnight, two ministerial meetings — of finance and foreign affairs— failed to secure a consensus over a joint communiqué, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine being the key point of difference. Both indicate a hardening of positions by Russia and China; the wording of both communiqués on the war was identical to the one contained in the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, to which leaders of the two countries had agreed less than four months ago on November 15/16, 2022. The statement declared that “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine”, spoke of “peaceful resolutions of conflicts” but added the caveat that there were “other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions”. Instead, the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Bengaluru, which took place during the first anniversary of the war, and the foreign ministers’ meet in New Delhi late last week had to issue a chair’s summary and outcome document, which reflects the fact of differences among delegates.

Notably, both documents retained the wording of the Bali Leaders’ Declaration on the war. The G20 foreign ministers’ meeting marked a ratcheting up of tensions, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the meetings. Discussions over the joint statement faltered on several issues, including Russia’s insistence on an investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline last year, allegedly carried out by the United States. After the deliberations Russia released a statement saying talks could not take place in an environment in which the West was unilaterally setting the agenda.

This widening rift within the G20 has added a considerable degree of complexity to India’s delicate balancing act between its own interests on energy security by buying cheap crude oil from Russia and the security imperatives under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. This much was in evidence a day after the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting when a Quad dialogue reiterated respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty and also critiqued China’s aggression in the Pacific. Within hours of the Quad’s statement, Mr Lavrov stated that a Russia, India and China (RIC) foreign ministers’ meeting would be held later this year — though the RIC’s dialogues have not been held since November 2021.

It is unclear whether Russia would have adopted such a hardline position without China’s concurrence, but their positions are weakening the already fragile process of multilateral cooperation. This was a point Prime Minister Narendra Modi made in his address to top G20 diplomats last week. He pointed out that the crises of the past few years — financial, climate change, the pandemic, terrorism, and wars — were indicators that global governance had failed. New Delhi’s best efforts to focus the G20 agenda on critical issues that impact the global South such as food, energy, and fertiliser security hang in the balance. The diplomatic sparring observed last week does not augur well for the G20 leaders’ summit scheduled for September this year. India’s ability to negotiate between these geopolitical shoals may turn out to be the real test of its presidency.