India on its own

Foreign assistance on climate change isn't forthcoming

Even while claiming major advances on meeting climate commitments with largely domestic endeavour and funding, India’s second biennial update report presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seeks adequate financial and technological support to meet the new challenges on this front. This plea, no doubt, is bound to fall flat due to the rich nations’ growing reluctance to contribute funds for this purpose. The important part of the report, therefore, is the declaration that, unlike most other countries, India is on track to fulfilling two of its three main commitments made as part of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to combat climate change. These involve reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 20-25 per cent by 2020 over 2005 levels, and raising the share of non-fossil fuels-based power in electricity production to 40 per cent. The third commitment — creating 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon sink through forestry — is set to be missed. Nevertheless, despite unabated increase in the GHG emissions, the carbon intensity of the Indian economy has dipped to 21 per cent, which is well within the targeted range. Similarly, the proportion of non-fossil electricity in power output has surged to 35.5 per cent, bringing the 40 per cent goal within striking distance.
 

However, more resources would need to be mobilised to sustain and step up these efforts. Funding worth about $206 billion (at 2014-15 prices) is estimated to be needed till 2030 for climate adaptation in areas such as agriculture, water resources and ecosystems. An additional $834 billion is required for global warming mitigation measures. Against this, all that India has received till 2018 is an indicative allocation of $87.87 million. Of this, the actual approvals amount to merely $59 million. Worse still, the indicative allocation for the 2018-22 period has shrunk to just $40 million — a pittance compared to the massive requirement. How much of it materialises is uncertain as the developed countries often renege on their pledges.

Therefore, the choice before India is clear. It will have to stand on its own in staving off the perils of global warming. The agriculture sector needs greater resilience against erratic weather to safeguard the livelihood of the bulk of the country’s population. According to the farm ministry, the output of major crops may not show any significant dip in the shorter run but it might decline sharply by as much as 10-40 per cent over a longer period. The country’s capacity to cope with weather-induced natural disasters, too, would need to be shored up. No cost would be too high for this purpose, given the huge and recurring damage the country is suffering due to events attributable to climate change. Official estimates put these losses at around $10 billion a year. Health costs and consequential productivity losses are apart from this. A World Bank report released in June 2018 said the rising temperature and changing monsoon rainfall patterns could shave off 2.8 per cent of India’s GDP, affecting the living standards of nearly half of its population by 2050. Under these circumstances, it may be advisable for India to lay greater emphasis on adaptation vis-à-vis other aspects of the battle against climate change.