Marginal progress on climate

Even with 40 countries issuing new NDCs, the carbon mitigation pledges remain inadequate to contain the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, has released its synthesis report for 2022 — its yearly summary of developments related to the climate commitments made by the various parties to the UNFCCC, essentially sovereign states. These “nationally determined contributions”, or NDCs, were part of the compromise hammered out in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and are meant to be revised and strengthened on a regular basis. The latest report mentions “marginal” progress being made over the past year. This has come from almost 40 countries issuing new or updated NDCs that enhance their carbon-mitigation pledges. These new NDCs, if fully put into practice, might lead to emission levels over the coming decade being about 5 per cent lower than in the previous scenario. In addition, the overall picture suggests that global emissions might now peak before 2030. The effort, however, remains inadequate to contain the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

This report comes shortly prior to the 27th conference of parties to the UNFCCC, or COP27 — to be held this year at Sharm-el-Sheikh in Egypt. It is natural to ask therefore how it impacts the negotiations to take place at that summit. Last year’s COP26, hosted by the United Kingdom in Glasgow, was preceded by frenetic diplomacy intended to get several countries, including India, to sign up to “net zero” targets. In the end, that diplomacy was largely effective, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself committing the Indian economy to carbon neutrality, albeit by 2070. Yet COP26 itself did not end with a sufficiently large number of countries updating their NDCs, as was envisaged in Paris six years earlier. Several countries are now being perceived, including by the synthesis reports, as being left behind when it comes to climate action. Several other issues, including compensation for “loss and damage”, were pushed back to be discussed at COP27.

It is especially worth noting that even the most optimistic view of additional NDC commitments relies on there being sufficient support in terms of finance and technology. When Mr Modi made his net-zero commitment, he conditioned it on these two factors being made available. More immediate 2030 targets for renewables capacity, for example, also vitally require that greater amounts of finance and easier access to cutting-edge technology be prioritised. In other words, the developed world’s responsibilities when it comes to climate change do not end with updating their own NDCs. It is also necessary that they live up to past pledges on green finance, and increase those commitments as time goes by to fulfil the legitimate needs of those developing countries, including India, that are having to invest in new infrastructure to support tightening NDCs. On this aspect, there has not been great progress in past years, with even the minimal $100-billion green-finance target being ignored and missed. At the very least a credible recommitment to this target will be required if the rest of the world is to make a real effort to not just meet but update existing climate action efforts as expressed through their NDCs. Developing countries will struggle without the necessary financial support.