Nepal's destiny

The election offers some new signals for India

The results of Nepal’s general election are set to bring the ruling five-party alliance back to power under the stewardship of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who leads the Nepali Congress party. Under the complicated combination of first past the post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) for the 275-member Parliament, the alliance, which includes the CPN-Maoist, the main group of former Maoist rebels under Pushpa Kamal Dahal (better known as “Prachanda”), has won some 87 seats and is slated to win half the seats under PR. Though the elections were held on November 20, the final count will be available only on December 8 owing to a re-poll in three constituencies. The Opposition coalition, led by the K P Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or CPN-UML, won or leads in 49 seats in the FPTP system and the UML is leading in terms of PR votes. These leading indicators are good news for India, given the closer relations of the Nepali Congress than those of Mr Oli, who has a pro-Beijing stance. But whether this latest election will bring stability to the mountain country is an open question.
 

Since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, Nepal has had 10 governments but none has served its full term. Mr Deuba has been prime minister five times and Mr Oli and “Prachanda” twice each. But economic growth has scarcely picked up since the pandemic came, with tourism, the major forex earner, yet to gain momentum and the overseas Nepali workers’ remittances, which account for about a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), unlikely to rise owing to the threat of growing recession. Nearly 20 per cent of the population live on less than $2 a day and, with inflation riding at 8 per cent and unemployment rife, both parties have, unsurprisingly, campaigned on creating jobs. Delivering on this promise, however, demands political stability to create conducive conditions for economic activities. All the three key leaders are acutely aware of the need for some level of political equilibrium for the greater good. So ahead of the final results, discussion on government formation has begun and promises of constructive collaboration across the aisle duly made.
 

The urgency to do so comes from Nepal’s young voters, who have frequently expressed their dissatisfaction with the existing political dispensation. Hints of this were evident in the seven seats bagged by Nepal’s six-month-old Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by 48-year-old TV host-turned-politician Rabi Lamichhane. The RSP fought on the platform of good governance, anti-corruption, and employment for youths, and has the potential to emerge as a potent third force in Nepali politics. Young people account for roughly 41 per cent of Nepal’s population and offer the country the bounty of a demographic dividend provided they have access to education and a decent livelihood. In the balancing act that Kathmandu must perforce play between India, its traditional partner, and China, the rising regional superpower, the youth factor could play a critical role, and it may benefit New Delhi to track this cohort more closely to stay ahead of the game in Nepalese politics.