Oil and macro economy

Considering the elevated crude prices and the strong unfavourable base effect, retail inflation in June 2018 is likely to breach the RBI's revised inflation projection of 4.8-4.9 per cent in first ha

While the Indian economy was recovering from the twin shocks of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax roll-out, a combination of an elevated crude oil price and a weak rupee has given rise to jitters in the Indian economy. A rising crude oil price since mid-2017 and a sharp increase since April 2018 have again brought to the fore the vulnerability of the Indian economy with regard to oil imports. The situation is  amplified due to a slowdown of capital inflows in the economy, originating from the strength of the US dollar and an increase in global interest rates.