Oil portents: Are we headed for another price shock and economic shake-up?

If forecasters are right and oil rises not just to $100 but perhaps $120 a barrel, trade gap, inflation, the rupee's external value and economic growth may all come under pressure, writes T N Ninan

Brent crude was ruling near $120 per barrel when Narendra Modi became prime minister in mid-2014. It fell to a low point of $29 in January 2016, before climbing back up. A year ago, the price had crossed $50, and by December was over $60. In May, it crossed $70, and is now past $80. There is no shortage of forecasters who expect it to cross $100 once the Iran sanctions kick in. Some see a peak price of $120 in 2019. If that happens, we will be back where we were. With the rupee having fallen against the dollar