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Public finances: Something doesn't add up

Revenues for 2019-20 projected in the July Budget simply cannot be realised

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Rahul Khullar
The past six months have witnessed a torrent of dismal economic news. The Budget is three weeks away and there is little reason to believe that the pall of gloom will lift. Here’s why.

Revenues for 2019-20 projected in the July Budget simply cannot be realised.  The estimate for gross tax revenue (GTR) was Rs 24.6 trillion, a 9.5 per cent increase over revised estimates (RE) of Rs 22.5 trillion for 2018-19. The problem, however, is that the actual GTR for 2018-19 was Rs 20.8 trillion, implying an 18.3 per cent increase, which was never possible.  

In its recent (December 2019) submission
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