Right line, wrong length

India, with over 1,300 million people, cannot be governed by the same arbitrary rules as England was in the 17th century. Even with 65 million people it is finding the going hard

In the past 30 years which election has been the most difficult to predict? My attempts to solve this question have led me to formulate a proposition with two parts.
 
Part 1 is this: The closer you are to one general election, the easier it is to predict the outcome of the next. In 2014, for example, it was easy to predict at least 275 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP in 2019.
 
Part 2 is that the closer you get to the next general election the harder it is to predict its outcome. Would anyone like to