Riots for electoral gains?

In state elections held between 1981 and 2001, a Hindu-Muslim riot occurring in the year preceding the election, caused, on an average, a 5 percentage point increase in BJP's vote share in election

The recent spate of riots in Karnataka a few months before the elections follows a pattern seen around the country. The earlier examples that come to mind are riots in Kishtwar in Jammu and in Muzaffarnagar in UP preceding the general elections in 2014. In both these areas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ended up doing exceptionally well in those elections. There is a general sense that riots do have some effect on elections but understanding the magnitude of the effect and the mechanisms through which this effect happens is important for understanding the electoral strategies that could be at play. If