Shaken by the storm

After the admission, govt must change course on policy

Speaking in his regular radio address this Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “after successfully confronting the first wave of Corona, the country was full of enthusiasm, full of self-confidence, but this storm [the second wave] has shaken the country”. This is not an admission of past overconfidence, but in the current charged political environment is likely to be as close as the prime minister can come to such an admission. The question is whether the storm has shaken the government itself enough to cause it to question certain foundational aspects of its approach not just to the virus but to the broader governance deficits that have been brutally exposed by the pandemic. Certainly, there have been some significant shifts in policy in recent weeks, most notably the opening up of the private market in vaccines from May 1, alongside the expedited emergency use approvals to be provided to those vaccines that have passed and undergone extensive regulatory scrutiny elsewhere in the world. What other such shifts should be prioritised?

First, the government must maintain its recent willingness to tolerate freer pricing for the section of vaccine production that is being procured by the private sector. This is necessary to induce a proper supply response from vaccine manufacturers. It should also carefully re-examine its own procurement price, of Rs 150 a shot. It is important to note that previous expectations were that only an initial tranche of procurement — perhaps the first 100 million doses from the Serum Institute of India — would be priced at this level. There should be no further pressure on the manufacturers to match this initial price, but it should be set at a level that is both concessional and also provides sufficient return to finance capacity expansion. Current concerns that state and Union governments have different pricing schedules will perhaps be settled in that eventuality. The Centre’s reported move to ask vaccine manufacturers to lower the price is thus unwarranted.

The government must also act on two other issues, which have broader implications for its governance strategy. It must recognise that its “Aatma Nirbhar” or “self-reliant” strategy has not worked effectively in the case of vaccines. Nor are vaccines unrepresentative of the complex products involving diffuse supply chains that are now common in the goods trade. The government has needed to reach out to ensure the free flow of inputs from countries like the United States. Single-country supply chains are not feasible in most circumstances. The vaccine situation should serve as a wake-up call in terms of the larger shift towards tariffs and barriers in the name of self-reliance.

The second issue the government must consider is the question of transparent data. In the absence of such data, it is hard to see how the pandemic is doing. The PM has repeatedly stressed the importance of high testing, using the gold standard RT-PCR. Clear and reliable studies must be undertaken regarding the efficacy of the currently utilised vaccines against the new strains of the coronavirus. This will not just increase public confidence but also be a vital input into calculations of when India is likely to reach herd immunity and whether it should plan for spending on booster shots. Transparent and high-quality data to inform policy and public choices is a central duty of the government, and the pandemic should have brought that message home to this administration.