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There is little doubt that the central government is constrained for fiscal space and it is, therefore, important to think about solutions going forward. I offer a medium-term macro-fiscal exercise that makes clear the analytical choices and trade-offs that government faces. I hope that this will demonstrate the value of a medium-term approach to budgeting, and the pressing need to shift to an operational medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF), which is how budgeting is now done in most major economies.
The baseline scenario
The baseline is built on the premise that all fiscal numbers, as well as GDP growth, over the
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