The award for the biggest surprise in the currency markets this year must surely go to the euro. It has gained by a hefty 6.9 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of 2017, effectively silencing the tribe of sceptics who, temporarily dazzled by the intensity of the pro-dollar Trump trade, had (yet again) predicted a precipitous fall in the currency.
Two things are happening with the euro that needs to be appreciated. First, the last few so-called “risk-off” phases (driven by say a fresh leak on the US administration’s alleged collusion with Russia), the euro has emerged as a
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