The mother of all dilemmas

German local elections highlight EU's existential problem

The biggest political party in Germany, which is the European Union’s most powerful member, has suffered a setback, raising afresh concerns about the surge of nationalism in the West. Last week, the ruling conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat Union (CDU), lost its majority in the 180-seat local parliament for the first time since the end of World War II. The CSU's majority shrank to 37.2 per cent of the vote from 47.7 per cent in 2013, which translated into 85 seats (from 101 in 2013), some of it to fringe parties such as the pro-Nazi anti-immigrant party Alternative for Germany (AfD). The other big loser in the largest of the German states was the Social Democrats, or SDP, a member of Ms Merkel’s federal “grand coalition”, which won only 22 seats against 42 in 2013, putting it on a par with the AfD. Having ruled out any alliance with the AfD, the CSU must ally with the left-wing Green Party, which has been an unexpected gainer with 38 seats, or the Free Voters with 27 seats.

The results of Bavaria’s elections echo the signals from Germany’s federal elections in 2017: Ms Merkel, chancellor since 2005, is in trouble and her relative decline in power reflects the growing centrifugal forces that assail the European Union (EU), arguably the most successful political project in the post-war world. The waning popularity of her leadership and that of her party are linked to a tragedy in another continent, from where refugees of raging multiple civil wars — Syria, principally, but also from Yemen, Libya and Iraq — are fleeing. In response, EU and non-EU countries opened their borders with varying degrees of reluctance. But Ms Merkel, nicknamed Mutti or mother, proved an exemplar, welcoming over one million refugees in 2015. Bavaria, by virtue of its geography, received the lion’s share of this influx, and it continues to do so. But with ever-larger numbers pouring in, and economic growth fragile and unemployment high, xenophobia inevitably raised its head.

Ms Merkel’s failure to deal, with greater authority, with the outbreak of crime by a section of refugees has weakened her cause immeasurably. The EU’s subsequent attempts to deal with the refugee crisis by apportioning “quotas” for member-countries failed, as did a deal with Turkey. Ms Merkel’s honourable, if unpopular, defence of her refugee policy appears to have provoked an equal and opposite reaction. Today, right-wing nationalist parties may not hold majorities in any European country, but from Sweden to Austria to Greece they are gaining ground with between 10 and 29 per cent vote shares. At the same time, EU unity itself appears to be weakening, with Brexit remaining a cautionary test case. Thus, the political fortunes of Bavaria, the base from which Adolf Hitler began his rise to power, will depend on the strength of the coalition Ms Merkel forges there. Today, it is ironic that the EU’s future hinges on a left-wing party that also happens to be pro-immigrant. How far this stabilises politics in Germany is an open question still.