The second wave

India must watch the developments in Europe carefully

There is no question now that the European continent is in the grip of a virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the novel coronavirus first emerged in China, it was when it raged through northern Italy in the late winter that the world really sat up and took note. The scenes in the northern Italian province of Lombardy, which includes the large and cosmopolitan city of Milan — Italy’s economic heartland — were sufficiently harrowing for policymakers around the world to understand the impact of the pandemic, and what it could mean for their own citizens. Spain and Italy, which were hit the hardest in the first wave of the coronavirus, are now among the first to start restricting activity in response to the second wave — though many other parts of Europe are following. For India, this must be watched closely for there are clearly lessons to be learned. While it is unquestionable that the first wave of the pandemic in India is on the retreat, it would be dangerously overconfident for decision makers to believe that nothing similar to the European resurgence could happen here. In fact, there is every reason to believe that multiple waves are the norm, and indeed near inevitable.

One of the things that can be learned from Europe’s current struggle is that there is considerable resistance to the sort of sharp and complete lockdown that was imposed in many countries across the world early on in the pandemic. While recent research, including by the Indian government’s own high-level expert committee, has suggested that the lockdown had an instrumental effect in suppressing the spread of the virus, the human and economic costs are now thoroughly understood and there is widespread resistance to repeating the experience. But, as the head of the southern Italian region of Campania told his people recently, there is sometimes no alternative to a lockdown when hospitals look like they are getting overwhelmed. Even so, there are other routes available. One such is the “circuit-breaker” lockdown, which is achieving popularity in some parts of Europe. This is a lockdown with a defined length, which does not aim at stamping out the virus but temporarily reducing its spread when it appears poised for exponential growth. Another approach is that being taken by the UK — “tiered” shutdowns, where different regions automatically have different restrictions put in place, depending upon the degree to which the virus seems to be making inroads there. Europe’s experience with these mechanisms will be valuable in making decisions as to what other countries, like India, will do when the second wave hits.

Another fact to be noted is that federal relations might well be stretched to breaking point. In the UK, the mayor of Greater Manchester has vociferously objected to his city being shut down. This is not even a simple partisan question, since the Manchester mayor’s superiors in the national party are in fact calling for a national lockdown harsher than that being imposed on the city. Similar tensions are visible in Italy, in Spain, and even in Germany, where the premier of the southern province of Bavaria has declared that German federalism has “failed” when it comes to the pandemic. In the second wave, co-operation between the Union and state governments in India will become even more crucial. Preparation should start now.