Vinay Umarji & Vimukt Dave: Time to go beyond just the urban agenda

The local body poll results have shown that the BJP cannot afford to neglect the needs of the rural population

On December 2, the local body election verdict in Gujarat showed that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won municipal corporations and municipalities in urban areas and the Congress had bagged district and taluka panchayats in rural areas.

The very next day, the BJP government in Gujarat announced a 6,000-acre bounty for cooperative societies and agricultural produce committees at concessional rates.

The move is being interpreted as a clear admission by the BJP that it had lost ground among farmers and rural citizens, whose vote went to the Congress in the civic body polls. The admission also came in the form of a statement by Chief Minister Anandiben Patel: "It is a bittersweet result for us. I am happy that the hard work of our party leaders in urban areas paid off. We will analyse what went wrong in the rural areas and try to improve our performance next time."

There are now questions galore about Narendra Modi's much-hyped Gujarat model of development, which analysts say is nothing but a "pro-big industry model" that neglected rural and agrarian regions, especially Saurashtra and north Gujarat in the state.

 

"Two things have brought to the fore the rural-urban divide in Gujarat," says social and political analyst Achyut Yagnik. "First, the government has neglected rural areas in its pro-big industry policy. Farmers have not been getting the desired prices for cotton and groundnut. Issues such as poor road connectivity and erratic power supply have also affected the rural areas. Second, the Patel agitation dented the BJP's hopes of a clear victory."

Three years ago prices of raw cotton (known as kapas) had touched Rs 1,400 per 20 kg in Gujarat. In the last one year, prices have fallen to Rs 850-950 per 20 kg in the state - a situation that the Patidar (Patel) leaders latched on to during their agitation in the last few months. They blamed the government for not helping the farmers get proper returns.

Moreover, in the first round of monsoon, heavy rain damaged cotton and groundnut crops in some parts of Saurashtra. With no proper financial relief package coming from the government, discontent against the BJP grew in the rural areas, evidence of which can be found in the local body poll results in these parts.

However, contrary to anticipation that the Patel agitation would result in the BJP's rout in the polls, the verdict has been a mixed bag. For example, 42 out of the 56 municipalities that the BJP won include Viramgam, the hometown of 22-year-old Patidar agitation leader Hardik Patel. Urban areas of Ahmedabad and Surat, where the agitation had gained momentum, also sided with the BJP. In fact, the party won all six urban civic bodies.

Yet the rural-urban divide in a state that has ironically been propagating "rurbanisation" could widen, thereby posing a serious threat to the BJP's prospects in the 2017 state Assembly elections. Anandiben Patel's government could arrest this trend, given that the BJP's loss in rural areas cannot be construed as a vote in favour of the Congress, despite what its state president Bharatsinh Solanki would like to claim. "The government has literally ignored the farmers," he says. "We take all sections of society with us. The Congress has won majority in the rural areas. This is a verdict against the state government."

Political analysts say the BJP government should now take a step back from its development agenda, which is skewed towards the urban population. "There was a rush towards industrialisation that largely benefited urban citizens," social scientist Vidyut Joshi says. "The government should now look into social issues especially in rural and semi-urban areas. It should take steps for balanced development."

For now, the BJP seems to have realised its folly. "We are planning on what steps to take to reach out to the rural masses," a senior BJP leader says. "We will soon come out with a strategy."