What next for vaccines?

Budget numbers suggest govt reducing the scale

In her speech to Parliament while presenting the Union Budget for 2022-23, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman twice highlighted the success of the Indian vaccination programme. First, she noted that the “speed and coverage of our vaccination campaign has helped greatly” in what she described as the “overall sharp rebound and recovery” of the Indian economy. Second, she noted that the “speedy implementation of the vaccination programme” was one of the positive outcomes of the last Budget. In this context, it might be worthwhile to examine more closely the budgetary allocations for the vaccination programme, and what it implies about the government’s further plans for the coming year in terms of battling the pandemic. 

Here the numbers are somewhat puzzling. Last year, the Budget had estimated a cost of Rs 35,000 crore for the vaccination programme, which is listed among the Demands for Grants in the Expenditure Budget as under Demand 42, with the heading “Transfers to States”. In the revised estimates for 2021-22, the actual spending under that head — “Support for Covid-19 vaccination” — came out to be Rs 39,000 crore. It had been reported last year that the government had come up with the Rs 35,000 crore figure on the assumption that it would be responsible for vaccinating around 500 million people. But, of course, this number was modified considerably over the course of the year, with the devastating Delta wave changing many plans. Eventually free vaccines were made available to all adults — a number approaching a billion possible recipients. 

But it’s puzzling that the government has set aside only Rs 5,000 crore under this head in the Union Budget for 2022-23. On the one hand, it could be argued that the government has now managed to fully vaccinate about 70 per cent of the eligible population, with over 90 per cent receiving at least one dose. But, on the other hand, most countries have recognised the need for a booster shot given the mutation of the virus and real-world scientific evidence that protection might wane after some time. Is it the case that the booster dose will not be planned for in India? Or is it the case that, once two doses have been handed out, the remainder will be left to the private sector to manage? The Budget’s paltry allocation for vaccines is a reminder that these very important questions must now be asked. 

The overall thrust of the Budget — including its allocations for food and other subsidies — suggests confidence in the government that the worst of the pandemic is over. It is to be hoped that this is indeed the case. But there were similar hopes last year before the horrific second wave struck, destroying lives and livelihoods. The crucial difference between 2022 and 2021 is the availability of vaccines. The vaccination rate, as government officials have pointed out, is now a macro-economic indicator and affects the fortunes of an economy. The government must not stint on budgeting for and providing vaccines for the Indian population. Few public goods are both so vital and can be delivered so easily and effectively. A few thousand crores might be the difference between a devastating wave and one that is not so bad.