Who wins if India and Pakistan fight?

Wars have been fought for all sorts of obscure reasons, ranging from the entirely rational to the completely insane. Russia and Japan, for instance, once went to war in order to win a Chinese contract to build a railway line in Manchuria. The Taiping Rebellion, which led to the deaths of over 20 million, was sparked off when a man who claimed to be the younger brother of Jesus Christ demanded the right to establish a heavenly kingdom.  Sundry wars everywhere have been fought over religious minutiae that make little sense to non-believers.  

This war between India and Pakistan is being fought for rational reasons. One side has consistently pursued an asymmetric strategy of fomenting terrorism and insurgency for nearly three decades and it sees no reason not to continue. The government on the other side wants to win re-election and is looking to score points. Hence, it looked to escalate matters by air strikes across the border after five years of doing very little. That meant, of course, that the Pakistanis had to escalate further.  

Of course, India and Pakistan are not officially at war. But both sides have mobilised resources and there has been heavy and continuous shelling ever since the Pulwama terror attack. Both sides have claimed kills in aerial dogfights, and the airspace has been shut down and civilians have been evacuated from border areas. In effect, this is a war, though neither side has bothered to declare it. That leaves some diplomatic wriggle room of course. 

More than casualties in military action, this war is one of perception. It has already seen the generation of terabytes of fake news and disinformation. Cyberspace has been flooded with conflicting reports and pictures sourced from all over the place. What makes matters more confusing is the fact that officials on both sides have made absurd and unverifiable claims. 

Indian officials claimed “off the record” that the airstrike at Balakot killed anywhere between 300 and 650 terrorists. Pakistan claims the only casualty is a crow. Who knows what the truth is? Pakistan claimed it downed two fighters and produced one IAF officer as proof. India denied that Wing Commander Abhinandan had gone missing for several hours until he was paraded on TV. India continues to insist that one Pakistani fighter was downed, and Pakistan continues to stoutly deny this happened.  

In wars, adversaries routinely indulge in propaganda. Governments lying to inflate their successes, to conceal weaknesses and to deflate losses are age old phenomena. One classic example of that was the Spanish Flu that killed millions in 1918-19. The Flu originated in America and it infected millions of troops sitting in the trenches of Western Europe. But it's called the Spanish Flu because Spain, being a non- combatant, was the first nation where the national media reported its existence. 

A hundred years later, the difference lies in the amplification of lies and propaganda on social media where conflicting narratives and fake news are competing for eyeballs. This makes it impossible for even balanced neutrals to make sense of what's going on. It also devalues the authenticity of official releases from either government since the claims by one country are instantly  denied by the other. The ensuing troll-fest may be entertaining but it obfuscates the truth, whatever it might be. 

War was once famously defined as diplomacy by other means.  But what are the strategic objectives of these two governments now? One would just like to keep the pot boiling in Kashmir. The other would like to win an election. 

Oddly, those objectives may not be incompatible. The Modi government has done more to foster alienation in Kashmir than any previous central administration. It has also done its best to polarise Indians along caste and religious lines. That cannot make Pakistan unhappy. By allowing India to claim a diplomatic victory, Pakistan can strengthen the case for Modi's re-election. Hence, it could be looking to de-escalate, seeing a potential win-win. 

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Twitter: @devangshudatta