Telangana gamble can't fix Congress's dwindling fortunes in Andhra

The UPA government's decision is based on pure political calculations of the Congress

Has the schedule rally of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in the Telangana region next month prompted the Congress to shed its procrastination policy over the controversial issue? There is one school of thought that believes that alarm bells have started ringing for the grand old party, and it is all set to put a full stop on endless speculation and tug-of-war in the party which is vertically split on the vexed issue.

 

The Congress top brass must have realised that putting the contentious matter on the back burner will not work even as a short-term tactic. Andhra Pradesh powered the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) Lok Sabha victory in 2009 and is therefore crucial to its electoral fortunes in 2014. In 2009, the Congress got 33 and in 2004 it bagged 29 seats. With a hung Lok Sabha predicted, it is easy to gauge the importance of each MP from the state. Andhra is so divided on the Telangana issue that a repeat of 2009 is doubtful at present.

 

 

Congress president Sonia Gandhi is keen to resolve the matter at least ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections and simultaneous Andhra Pradesh assembly polls to improve the party’s prospects. The partition of India’s fifth largest state -- in terms of area as well as population -- Andhra Pradesh appears imminent and Telangana will most likely be India’s 29th state. However, the Congress high command decision rattled Andhra Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy as the leadership question is likely to be revisited as part of the bifurcation package.
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Congress spin doctors are busy in giving shape to topple the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) applecart and deter the saffron party creating a separate Telangana and gaining a firm foothold in the state if it comes to power at the Centre next year. The saffron party is focusing on the Telangana region and has aggressively taken up the cause of separate statehood.

 

Also, the Congress chief had been convinced by pro-Telangana leaders that the best way to decimate Telugu Desam Party (TDP) leader N. Chandrababu Naidu and contain the influence of Jaganmohan Reddy was to divide the state. The party faces a tough challenge from the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the TDP in the region. In Seemandhra (Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra regions), the Congress will be pitted against breakaway leader Reddy’s YSR Congress.

 

Political pundits say a decision to grant a separate Telangana state will open a Pandora's box, resulting in renewed demands for a separate Gorkhaland in West Bengal, Harit Pradesh in Uttar Pradesh, Bodoland in Assam and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, to name a few. A Telangana state would have been unthinkable during YS  Rajasekhara Reddy’s regime  but his exit had given the high command an opportunity to exert its authority. While the TRS, the BJP and the Communist Party of India have been unequivocally pro-Telangana, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen have been openly against the bifurcation, the TDP and the YSR Congress have been ambiguous on this issue.

 

Candidly, the think-tanks within the  Congress recognize the fact that it cannot possibly imagine coming anywhere near to regaining power at the Centre, without returning a sizeable number of MPs from the state. As part of its new Andhra strategy for the 2014 elections, the party is ready to take a calculated gamble to grant a separate Telangana alongside implementing popular schemes such as food security and direct benefit transfers.

 

In the fast unravelling theatre of Andhra politics, there is no single solution that would please everyone, but that is no reason to defer a decision on an issue over which a large number of people in the Telangana region have been organising protests and agitations disrupting normal life. The Congress is well aware that a decision to carve out a separate Telangana would alienate many people in Coastal Andhra and other parts of the state, and also that any additional postponement would fuel anger among those in the thick of the statehood campaign. The Congress can ill-afford such repercussions in an election year. The strategy of holding out hope for a separate state without actually conceding it cannot yield political dividends any longer.

 

There is merit to the argument that the Congress’s decision in favour of Telangana will help sew up an alliance with the TRS, which has been spearheading the movement for a separate state. This could assure the Congress a substantial chunk of the 17 Lok Sabha seats of this region and 117 assembly seats in Andhra. To build pressure on the UPA government over the issue, the TRS had even offered to merge with the Congress if the statehood demand was granted.

 

Senior state Congress leaders are confused about the details, some doubting whether the new state would be called Telangana or Hyderabad State. The city of Hyderabad may continue to be the capital of both states for the next five years. Party leaders belonging to Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema are opposed to division of the state. The six anti-Telangana MPs, including Union ministers MM Pallam Raju, KS Rao, Chiranjeevi and D Purandeshwari (all hailing from coastal Andhra) and K Bapiraju and Anantarami Reddy had met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to push for keeping Andhra Pradesh united. The MPs told the PM that there would be repercussions not only for the state but also for the entire country if the state is divided.

 

Undoubtedly, what India deserves is a debate and a broad consensus on the criteria for creation of new states. The UPA government may think it only owes Telangana a state. Actually, it owes the nation some answers.