Explained: Why Tokyo Olympics will be like no other amid Covid-19

When the coronavirus pandemic forced Tokyo last year to delay the Summer Olympics and Para­lympics to July 2021, organisers kept the Tokyo 2020 name, saying they wanted the event to be seen as a “light at the end of the tunnel.” By keeping the name, the IOC also ensured that logos, packaging, t-shirts, merchandise and broadcast chyrons remain the same — a cost-saving move for sponsors and partners. Covid-19 is still spreading but the games appear to be going ahead, in what would be the biggest world event of the pandemic era. But they are almost certain to look like no other Olympics, with a bar on spectators from abroad and uncertainty as to whether even fans in Japan will be allowed in — an unprecedented move in the modern Oly­mpics movement that dates back to the late 19th century. (Some 600,000 foreign visitors were expected to attend last year before the post­ponement.) This means a financial hit for Japan, which has spent billions of dollars to host the games, but the cost could be far higher if the virus causes the first Olympics cancellation since World War II.

When are the games supposed to take place?

From July 23 to August 8. The Paralympics would begin Aug­ust 24. It would be the first staging of a modern Olympics in an odd-numbered year. This of course depends on the pandemic being contained to such an extent that the games can go forward. Prime Min­i­s­ter Yoshihide Suga has said he’s determined to hold the games. Organ­­i­sers have said the 2020 Olym­p­ics will be cancelled — not de­layed again — if they can’t go ahead as scheduled.

When will we know for sure?

Last year the plug was pulled in late March, when many countries were grappling with their first infection wave. This year, all indications have been for the games to go on as planned, even after Tokyo and other cities entered a third state of emergency in late April after a surge in Covid cases. Given the immense logistics of bringing athletes and officials to Japan, the sooner there’s certainty, the better.

Who decides?

The International Olympic Committee has the final say. Clause 66 of the host city contract cites various grounds for termination, including “if the IOC has reasonable grounds to believe, in its sole discretion, that the safety of participants in the games would be seriously threatened or jeopardised for any reason whatsoever”.

Could the Tokyo Olympics still be cancelled?

Yes, but the likelihood seems to be dropping. Some factors that could lead to a cancellation would be new, virulent strains emerging even as cou­ntries implement vaccination programmes. Japan has had some of the lowest infection numbers among developed countries, but it also has the lowest vaccination rate among the 37 members of the Org­anisation for Economic Coop­eration and Develop­ment, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker.

What has postponement cost?

The bill is at least 300 billion yen ($2.8 billion), with the central government, Tokyo Metro­po­l­itan Government and organising committee splitting the costs. The host city contract between Tokyo and the IOC doesn’t address postponement. The loss of overseas spectators was expected to deal a fresh blow to a tourism industry counting on revenue from Olympic visitors to recoup losses from the pandemic. About 7.8 million tickets were made available for the Olympics before the delay, and organisers still haven’t decided how many will be made available for the games.

Where does this leave sponsors?

Having to recalibrate their marketing plans. All sponsors retain their rights despite the postponement, including those with agreements expiring in 2020. The IOC’s top-tier global sponsors — an exclusive list of 14 companies including Coca-Cola Co and Visa Inc — pay well over $1 billion every four years to be associated with the games. Those agreements tend to span multiple Olympics, whereas local sponsors are in it just for this event. Tokyo organisers leaned on national pride to score an unprecedented level of support from 68 domestic sponsors such as Asahi beer and Asics sneakers — raising more than $3.3 billion, triple the previous record for an Olympics.

Has an Olympics ever been called off?

Five Olympic Games were scrapped, all because of world wars: The summer games were cancelled in 1916, 1940 and 1944 as were the winter games in 1940 and 1944. The 1940 games, which were to have been hosted by Tokyo, were initially postponed, but then cancelled. The only time an Olympics got switched was when the 1976 winter games were moved to Innsbruck, Austria, from Denver after people in Colorado protested spiralling costs.