Weekly policy watch: US trade talks, infra output in focus this week

India's policy calendar for April 20-26 is packed with key events including US trade talks, flash PMI data and infrastructure output, offering cues on growth, demand and policy direction

India’s policy and economic calendar for this week will be driven by a mix of global engagements and key domestic data releases that could shape near-term growth expectations.

 

The spotlight will be on India-US trade negotiations, flash PMI readings, and infrastructure output data -- all of which provide early signals on demand trends, investment activity and the broader policy direction. The importance of these indicators is higher this week due to continued global uncertainty, including volatile oil prices and West Asia crisis.

 

India-US trade talks

 

India and the United States will begin a fresh round of trade negotiations in Washington on Monday. The three-day discussions, scheduled from April 20 to 22, aim to finalise the first phase of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

 

 

A 12-member Indian delegation, led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain, will take part in the talks. This will be the first in-person engagement between the two sides since October 2025.

 

The negotiations come at a time of policy shifts in the US. A recent ruling by the US Supreme Court struck down the “reciprocal tariffs” introduced earlier under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by President Donald Trump, adding a new dimension to the talks.

 

Flash PMI to offer demand signals

 

The HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash data will be released on April 23, offering an early snapshot of business activity across sectors.

 

In March, the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.9 from 56.9 in February, though it was slightly above the preliminary estimate of 53.8. The reading pointed to the weakest improvement in factory activity in nearly four years. On the services side, the HSBC India Services PMI was revised up to 57.5 from the initial estimate of 57.2. While this still indicates steady expansion, it marked the slowest growth since January 2025 and was lower than February’s 58.1.

 

The April numbers will help assess whether demand remains strong despite global challenges.

 

Globally too, PMI data is being closely tracked as it gives early signals on economic momentum amid inflation concerns and geopolitical risks.

 

Infrastructure output to show investment trend

 

India’s infrastructure output data is scheduled to be released on April 20. This data covers key sectors like steel, cement, coal, crude oil and natural gas.

 

Recent trends show some moderation. Infrastructure output growth slowed to 2.3 per cent year-on-year in February, down from 4.7 per cent in January, though it marked the fourth straight month of expansion.

 

Core sectors such as steel and cement supported growth, but energy segments like crude oil and natural gas remained weak.

 

As infrastructure makes up nearly 40 per cent of India’s industrial output, the upcoming data will be important to understand whether the slowdown is temporary or reflects weaker investment activity.