Liberals' return in Canada a win-lose for Indian workers, students: Decoded

The Canadian elections were closely watched not just within Canada, but by large Indian communities both in the country and abroad

Canada’s Liberal Party, now led by Mark Carney, has won enough seats to form the next government—an outcome experts say brings mixed prospects for Indian immigrants and students, with some welcoming the continuity and others bracing for tighter visa controls and reduced intake.

 

The result was closely watched not just within Canada, but by large Indian communities both in the country and abroad. According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, over 427,000 Indian students were studying in Canada in 2023. The country also hosted 178,410 Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), 1.5 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs), and a total overseas Indian population of 1.69 million.

 

 

For many, the outcome marks a turning point—particularly as the new government will now steer immigration, study permits, work visas and long-term residency policies.

 

Policy review expected across immigration categories

 

Stephen Warren Green, managing partner at Green and Spiegel LLP, said he expects the government to take a fresh look at current visa rules.

 

“The immigration policy would be totally reviewed by the current government. It will be more geared towards specific types of industries and specific types of education pathways,” he told Business Standard.

 

Green also hoped the new Canadian prime minister would be invited by his Indian counterpart. “It is time that Canada and India further their joint investment opportunities between both countries,” he said.

 

David Crawford, managing partner of Fragomen Canada, said the Liberal government would likely take a broader approach to managing immigration volumes while keeping labour needs in mind.

 

“Long-term labour market needs are real and the government will recognise that skilled immigration remains a very important element of Canadian economic and social policy,” he said.

 

“That said, policy settings have changed frequently in the recent years, and it is likely the government will stabilise processing pressures and, over time, make immigration and student policies more predictable,” Crawford told Business Standard.

 

Visa bottlenecks and worker backlogs

 

Thousands of migrant workers, including Indian nationals, are reportedly stuck in a legal vacuum after losing their work permits due to growing delays in the paperwork renewal process. Without valid permits, they are unable to work or access healthcare, despite paying taxes and having arrived in the country legally.

 

Darshan Maharaja, a Canada-based immigration analyst, pointed out that the delays had ballooned over time.

 

“At one point, it was reported that there were 2.4 million pending applications. As of December last year, LMIA applications received in March were being processed,” he told Business Standard.

 

“A lot of political pressure has built up on the immigration policy, which required the government to cut down the numbers in different kinds of visa policies such as international students and foreign workers. In some cases, existing work permits are not being renewed.”

 

Cuts in targets and a shift in direction

 

In October 2024, the Canadian government announced that it would scale back immigration numbers to ease pressure on housing and infrastructure.

 

The revised permanent resident targets are:

 

395,000 in 2025  

380,000 in 2026  

365,000 in 2027  

 

This is down from earlier plans of 500,000 annual admissions, and marks the first time since 2018 that multi-year targets have been reduced.

 

Canada will also bring down its temporary resident population—including international students and foreign workers—from 6.2% of the population in 2023 to 5% by the end of 2026. This means a reduction of roughly 445,000 temporary residents in both 2025 and 2026.

 

Carney has publicly committed to doubling housing construction, partly by supporting prefabricated housing through state-backed financing. But the cuts to immigration could affect opportunities for overseas workers in trades and construction.

 

What this means for students

 

Education consultants said they are watching closely to see how the government approaches international students.

 

“I think that the government will look at all students and determine what is the best plan available in order to support the Canadian economy,” Green said.

 

Crawford added that the government must now prioritise restoring a predictable system. “For now, existing backlogs need to be managed, but the government’s stated goal of strengthening international trade relations will likely involve a commitment to supporting international immigration. This will be important for Canadian businesses, workers, educational institutions and international students.”

 

Saurabh Arora, founder and CEO of University Living, said Indian students remain a core group within Canada’s higher education landscape.

 

“Canada remains a preferred destination, thanks to its world-class education system, cultural diversity, and strong post-study work pathways. Hopefully, a renewed Liberal government will maintain its generally open and inclusive approach toward immigration,” he told Business Standard.

 

“For Indian professionals, particularly those transitioning from study to work, there is growing focus on creating smoother pathways to permanent residency and retaining high-skilled talent.”

 

Citing the Indian Student Mobility Report 2024, Arora added, “International students contribute around USD 39,000 annually to the Canadian economy.”

 

Stricter criteria for new applicants

 

Mamta Shekhawat, founder of Gradding.com, a study-abroad platform, said the next phase of policy could be more selective.

 

“For current students and employees in Canada, the emphasis on converting them to permanent residents could be beneficial since over 40% of new PR intakes will be from this category,” she said.

 

“But new Indian applicants will have strict study permit quotas, monetary requirements (at least CAD 20,635 or Rs 12.6 lakh plus tuition fees and travel), and fewer work permits. Indian students and workers now have to prove stronger academic, professional, and financial credentials to earn a spot in Canada's changing immigration system,” Shekhawat told Business Standard.

 

“Canada's reputation as an open haven for international students and skilled migrants is set to be challenged under the new Liberal government's policy. However, Canada's political stability, economic prospects, and steady demand for highly skilled people in strategic areas will remain attractive, if more selective, for foreign talent.”

 

What next under Carney

 

Abhijit Zaveri, founder and director of Career Mosaic, said the incoming administration’s message is broadly positive for Indian nationals already in Canada or hoping to move there.

 

“Mark Carney’s leadership offers a renewed sense of promise for migrants and international students, rooted in his firm belief that immigration is not just beneficial—but essential—for Canada’s economic vitality and national identity,” he said.

 

“While the Liberals are expected to regulate immigration volumes to ensure infrastructure and services can keep pace, Carney’s vision reinforces Canada’s legacy as a country built by and for immigrants.”

 

Zaveri believes more structured opportunities will emerge. “This includes those already studying or working in Canada, as well as future aspirants. While there may be policy refinements to ensure sustainability, Indian nationals—especially in high-demand fields like tech, engineering, and healthcare—can expect continued support.”

 

He added that the government’s push towards faster credential recognition and smoother permanent residency pathways aligns with Carney’s broader vision.

 

What the Canada election outcome shows

 

Carney, the former Bank of England governor, who only took over the leadership in March, after Justin Trudeau stepped down, will remain prime minister, but CBC News projects the Liberals will fall short of securing a full majority. His main rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat, as did Khalistan-supporter Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party.