Himalayan glaciers melting 65% faster, 80% volume at risk by 2100: Study

The study done by global consultancy Systemiq said that about one-third of Himalayan glacier mass loss is linked to South Asian black carbon

Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 per cent faster than a decade ago, with around one-third of the glacier mass loss linked to black carbon from South Asia, a new study by global consultancy Systemiq has found.

 

The Prosperous and Resilient Himalayas report, developed by Systemiq and the Integrated Mountain Initiative (IMI), with contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, warned that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their present glacier volume by 2100 if current trajectories continue.

 

The report said most Himalayan river basins are expected to reach “peak water” around mid-century—the point at which glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as the ice reserve shrinks. This could progressively weaken the natural water-storage system that feeds the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river systems and supports hundreds of millions of people downstream.

 

 

The crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of rapidly increasing risks in the region, the report warned.

 

The Himalayas account for 18 per cent of India’s land but around 35 per cent of its disasters, while India has close to 200 glacial lakes identified as high risk, according to the report. Of these, 56 have been classified as “very high risk”.

 

The study also flagged a major gap in monitoring. Only around 21 of the estimated 40,000 glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalayas are currently monitored, including just 16-17 in India. It said permafrost, another source of instability, is even less understood.

 

The report said the region is being pushed towards cascading risks through three interconnected loops. First, a “nature loop” in which warming accelerates glacier melt; second, a “hazard loop” in which one disaster triggers another; and third, an “economic vulnerability loop” in which recovery spending leaves less money for resilience and prevention.

 

Black carbon, however, is one of the areas where regional action can have a direct impact. The report attributes about one-third of Himalayan glacier mass loss to South Asian black carbon, with brick kilns contributing 32-42 per cent of anthropogenic black carbon deposition across the region.

 

The report argued that the answer is not to choose between conservation and development, but to shift towards a “mountain-specific regenerative growth model” in which economic activity, disaster resilience and ecosystem restoration reinforce each other.

 

What the report said about India’s economy

 

The Himalayas underpin more than 20 per cent of India’s GDP, making them a piece of the country’s national economic infrastructure, one on which the water, food and economic security of hundreds of millions of people ultimately depend, the report said.

 

Its central estimate puts Himalayan-linked economic activity, such as downstream agriculture, manufacturing and hydropower, at ₹64.8 trillion, equivalent to 21.5 per cent of India’s FY24 GDP.

 

The economic dependence extends well beyond the Himalayan states. Himalayan-fed rivers support wheat and rice production across the Indo-Gangetic Plain, tea production in Assam and Bengal, hydropower in the Northeast and pilgrimage economies in downstream towns.

 

Yet the report found that Himalayan states capture only around 5 per cent of the economic value the system supports, with most of the benefits accruing downstream. This creates a structural mismatch: Himalayan states bear much of the cost of managing natural systems that generate economic value for the wider country, while having a narrower fiscal base to invest in them, the study found.

 

This is particularly significant for India’s Viksit Bharat ambition, the report said. With India targeting developed-economy status by 2047 and requiring sustained growth of roughly 8 per cent a year over the next two decades, a fifth of the economic engine depends directly or indirectly on a mountain system under increasing stress.

 

What the study suggested

 

The report proposed 10 critical transitions focused on stabilising natural systems, building resilience to shocks and enabling sustainable growth. These include reviving around 1.5 million affected Himalayan springs through mapping, recharge and long-term stewardship; cutting black carbon by targeting more than 30,000 priority brick kilns; actively managing glacier risks; and bringing around 3 million hectares of fire-prone forests under year-round stewardship.

 

It also called for connecting glacier, weather, river and landslide data to early action; putting hazard science before development approvals; future-proofing roads, bridges and other lifeline infrastructure; adopting mountain-specific construction standards; shifting tourism from footfall to local value and carrying-capacity management; and strengthening premium mountain value chains.

 

The report further recommended reactivating the NITI Aayog Himalayan Council, designing a dedicated Himalayan institution, piloting high-return interventions in black carbon reduction, mountain-fit construction and disaster intelligence, and mobilising private investment in regenerative tourism.