IMD forecasts 'above normal' monsoon in 2025, easing inflation worries

The LPA for the June to September rains is 87 centimetres. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted an “above normal” monsoon in 2025, which quantitatively could be 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). 

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. This is the second year running when the IMD has predicted an “above normal” monsoon. Last year in April, it had predicted monsoon to be almost 106 per cent while the actual rains were 108 per cent of the LPA. 

The cumulative all-India LPA for the June to September rains is 87 centimetres (cm). Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal. 

 

A good, well-distributed rainfall in the monsoon months augurs well for the country’s farm sector as the period provides more than 70 per cent of the total precipitation that India gets in a year. Good monsoon is also a positive sign in the government’s efforts to keep food inflation under control. 

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. 

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods. 

 

Last week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet also said that cumulative all-India southwest monsoon this year could be “normal” at 103 per cent of the LPA. 

Probability-wise, the Met department said that there is 59 per cent chance of the 2025 southwest monsoon being “above normal and more”, 30 per cent chance of the rains being “normal”, and just 2 per cent chance of them being “deficient”. 

“In short, there is almost a 59 per cent chance of  2025 monsoon to be ‘above normal to excess’ and hardly any chance of its being ‘deficient’,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. 

According to the long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD said parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the northeastern states may experience “below normal” rainfall during the monsoon season. 

“Normal to above normal” monsoon rainfall is expected in large parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, which form the core monsoon zone (agriculture primarily rain-fed) of the country. 

Mohapatra, meanwhile, said the factors that are expected to positively influence the Indian monsoon season this year include a “neutral” El Nino-Southern Oscillation coupled with “neutral” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and “below normal” snow cover over Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia in the January-March period of 2025. 

“Low snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia is inversely proportional to the Indian monsoon,” Mohapatra said.

“This is very positive news for the farm sector but April is too early to predict how the monsoon will fare in June-September. Also, much will depend on when the rains arrive. As we have seen in the past, even an overall good monsoon does not guarantee good production of some food items such as vegetables,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, told Business Standard. 

The IMD also said that over the years, its forecast is getting better and from 2021 to 2025, the deviation between forecast monsoon and actual rains was 2.27 per cent, which was 7.5 per cent in the preceding four years between 2017 and 2020. 

Trump’s NOAA funding cut may impact India

The decision of the US admini­s­tration under President Donald Trump to cut the funding given to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could have an impact on India only if it leads to reduction in its observatory capabilities and ocean monitoring systems, a senior official said. 

The funding to NOAA, which is an American scientific and regulatory agency charged with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, and conduc­ting deep-sea exploration, has been reduced by 27 per cent, or by $1.67 billion, reports said. 

"If there is a cut in manpo­wer, we do not have any probl­e­m. Even if the model is not there, no problem. The only thing is that they are significan­tly contributing to the observing system, especially in the ocean — be it the Indian Ocean or the Pacific Ocean. If that is reduced, our forecasting skill will be reduced,” said M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

 

"As of now, this year, there is no problem... But in the long run, if they reduce NOAA funding and the observation system in the ocean and other things... then definitely our forecast system will (be impacted)," he added.

 

IMD and weather agencies of other countries source sizable quantities of data from NOAA.