Southwest monsoon withdraws from India, northeast monsoon begins: IMD

The IMD says the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from India, while northeast monsoon rains have begun in parts of the South. This year's southwest monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal.

The southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire country on Thursday, IMD said, noting that the northeast monsoon rainfall activity commenced over parts of south India on the same day.

 Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe witnessed activity under the northeast monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) added.

 "With the onset of the northeast monsoon, a wet spell with isolated heavy falls is likely over many parts of south peninsular India till October 21," it said in its daily forecast.

 There are two notable types of monsoon in India: the southwest monsoon, which is active from June to September, and the northeast monsoon -- also known as the retreating monsoon -- which affects parts of the country from October to December.

 

The southwest monsoon plays a crucial role in the country's economy, especially with its direct impact on the kharif crop cycle.

 The northeast type, less intense than the southwest monsoon, is significant for the the growth of rabi crops.

This year's southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rain, 12.6 per cent below the normal of 868.6 mm according to the IMD.

 One key reason behind the rainfall deficit has been the prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific, which emerged in June and have been gaining strength since.

 El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.

 While El Nino, which leads to less monsoon rainfall in India, is known to have a warming effect over the planet, its opposite phase, La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.

 Global weather agencies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have forecast that this year's El Nino event is likely to peak in December 2026, and could become the strongest since observations began in 1950.

 Moreover, the El Nino conditions are expected to persist through February 2027.