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Weather helps curb India's emissions growth to record low in 2025

India recorded the slowest growth in carbon dioxide emissions among the world's three largest polluters in 2025 as milder weather and higher renewable energy generation curbed electricity demand

India, carbon emission
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India's emissions increased by just 0.6 per cent, or 9 million tonnes of CO2, last year to 2.96 billion tonnes.

S Dinakar Hyderabad

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India's growth in annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use in 2025 was the lowest on record, barring the pandemic-induced shutdown in 2020, and the lowest among the world's three biggest polluters — China, the United States and India — according to a report by the Energy Institute. While fossil fuels accounted for 93 per cent of India's total energy supply, 2025 marked their lowest market share in the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy dataset, which dates back to 1965.
 
India's emissions increased by just 0.6 per cent, or 9 million tonnes of CO2, last year to 2.96 billion tonnes. This was much lower than the 4.4 per cent growth recorded in 2024 and the average annual growth of 3.4 per cent during 2015-2025, according to calculations based on the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026, released on Tuesday. The lower emissions growth, driven largely by reduced coal-fired power generation, reflected milder temperatures, which reduced electricity demand, according to the report.
 
The United States was the biggest contributor to global emissions growth, with emissions rising 3.1 per cent, or 129 million tonnes, to 4.75 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the report, which is produced in collaboration with Kearney, KPMG and Ember. The increase followed higher fossil fuel consumption and made the US the largest contributor to the rise in global CO2 emissions from energy use.
 
Global emissions increased by 1.1 per cent in 2025 from the previous year. China's emissions, which account for nearly one-third of the global total, rose 0.7 per cent to 11.2 billion tonnes of CO2 as rapid growth in renewable energy and increasing adoption of electric vehicles moderated emissions growth.
 
In 2025, coal remained India's largest source of energy, accounting for 59 per cent of total supply, followed by oil at 28 per cent, according to the Energy Institute. "In contrast to historical trends, the year saw no overall growth in India's fossil fuel consumption, with gas consumption falling by 5.9 per cent, coal consumption growing by only 0.6 per cent, and oil by 0.3 per cent," the report said. "The cause of this was a mixture of weather-driven and structural effects."
 
The largest factor behind the slower growth in CO2 emissions in India was milder temperatures during the monsoon season, which substantially reduced cooling demand and, therefore, growth in electricity demand, according to the report.
 
Alongside this, India set new records for wind and solar power generation, while favourable hydrological conditions further boosted renewable energy output. India's behind-the-meter solar capacity increased by 40 per cent year-on-year to 43.6 GW, the largest increase outside China in 2025. These factors combined led to a 3 per cent decline in coal-fired power generation and a 15 per cent fall in gas-based generation, the report said. However, inadequate transmission infrastructure continued to constrain greater integration of renewable energy despite rapid capacity additions over the past five years.
 
Carbon emissions
 
Global CO2 emissions from the energy sector rose 1.1 per cent to 35.8 billion tonnes in 2025, while emissions from energy, gas flaring and methane increased 1.1 per cent to 41 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The US accounted for 36 per cent of the increase in global emissions, with its year-on-year growth almost three times the global average. The only region with a higher growth rate was Africa, albeit from a much smaller base.
 
In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region improved the carbon intensity of its energy production but remained the world's largest emitter, accounting for 54 per cent of global emissions from energy, or 19.2 billion tonnes of CO2.
 
Europe's CO2 emissions from the energy sector increased by just 0.5 per cent in 2025. North America recorded the second-highest regional growth rate in energy-related emissions at 2.7 per cent and the largest increase in absolute terms, at 152.3 million tonnes of CO2, reversing the region's 10-year declining trend of 0.7 per cent. In absolute terms, the increase in US emissions was four times that of China. North America was the only region to record an increase in the carbon intensity of energy in 2025.