Can India meet rising power demand amid El Nino? Govt explains

As El Nino raises concerns over rising electricity demand, the Centre says India has adequate power, sufficient coal stocks and a roadmap to keep electricity supplies stable

Concerns that El Nino could strain India's power system through higher cooling demand, weaker hydropower generation and greater reliance on coal have prompted governments and utilities to step up preparations for the summer months.

 

Against this backdrop, the Centre on Thursday told Parliament that "there is adequate availability of power in the country."

 

In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, the Ministry of Power said India had sufficient electricity supply, adequate coal stocks and contingency measures in place to meet rising demand.

Why has El Nino raised concerns?

Several reports have warned that El Nino could reshape India's electricity demand.

   

Higher temperatures and humidity are expected to increase air-conditioning use, pushing up electricity consumption. At the same time, below-normal rainfall could reduce hydropower generation, increasing dependence on coal-fired plants during peak demand periods.

 

States have also been asked to prepare for higher electricity demand and maintain adequate fuel supplies.

What has the government told Parliament?

The Ministry of Power said India currently has an installed generation capacity of 548.86 GW as of June 2026.

 

It added that the country has "addressed the critical issue of power deficiency by adding 324.7 GW of generation capacity since April, 2014, transforming the country from power deficit to power sufficient."

 

The ministry also said transmission infrastructure has expanded significantly since 2014, taking total inter-regional transmission capacity to 1,20,340 MW, enabling reliable transfer of electricity across regions.

How much has electricity demand increased?

Linking the rise in electricity demand to weather conditions, the ministry said, "In view of development of El Nino conditions in the current year, the requirement of electricity has risen significantly."

 

According to the reply, peak electricity demand between April and June rose by around 12 per cent compared with the corresponding period last year. Despite this, India successfully met its highest-ever peak demand of 270.8 GW in May. Demand crossed 270 GW twice again in July, and both instances were met successfully.

 

The ministry also said India recorded an all-time high variable renewable energy generation of 103.7 GW in July, comprising 75 GW of solar and 28.7 GW of wind.

What does the government say about coal supplies?

The reply indicates that coal remains the main source of electricity during periods of high demand.

 

Coal and lignite-based capacity currently stands at 230.8 GW, accounting for 69.54 per cent of electricity supplied between April and June. During non-solar peak hours, coal-fired plants generated around 188.8 GW, or roughly 75 per cent of total electricity generation.

 

The ministry said thermal power plants had 41.4 million tonnes of coal stocks as of July 18, sufficient for 13 days at an 85 per cent Plant Load Factor (PLF). It added that coal supplies to thermal plants remain adequate and that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have had "minimum impact on energy availability in the country" because gas contributes less than 2 per cent to India's electricity generation.

What improvements does the government cite?

According to the ministry, "The efforts already made towards enhancing generation capacity utilisation, transmission and distribution efficiency and grid resilience have yielded encouraging results."

 

It said average daily electricity supply in rural areas has increased to 22.6 hours in FY26 from 12.5 hours in FY14, while urban supply has risen to 23.4 hours from 22.1 hours over the same period.

 

Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses have declined to 15.04 per cent in FY25 from 22.62 per cent in FY14. The gap between the average cost of supply and average revenue realised has narrowed to ₹0.06 per unit in FY25 from ₹0.78 per unit.

 

The ministry also said India recorded zero energy shortage in FY2025-26, compared with 4.2 per cent in FY2013-14. It added that renewable sources met 51.5 per cent of the country's electricity demand on July 29, 2025, the highest share recorded so far.

What are the government's short-term measures?

The ministry said it has "taken various measures for maintaining uninterrupted electricity supply, adequate coal stocks, strengthening fuel logistics... and strengthening overall grid resilience & energy security."

 

According to the annexure to the reply, these include maximising electricity generation from all available sources, optimising hydropower generation during peak demand periods, ensuring adequate fuel availability at power stations, monitoring outages, speeding up grid connectivity for renewable energy projects, promoting energy efficiency and coordinating closely with the Ministries of Coal and Railways to maintain coal supplies.

 

It also said scheduled maintenance of thermal plants is minimised during peak demand months.

What is the long-term plan?

The ministry said India will continue expanding both conventional and clean energy capacity.

 

It plans to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based installed capacity by 2030, while the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects this could rise to 786 GW by 2035-36.

 

At the same time, coal-based capacity is projected to increase to 315 GW by 2035-36, with no new imported coal-fired power plants planned.

 

The government also reiterated its target of 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047. It further outlined measures to expand battery energy storage systems, pumped storage projects, transmission infrastructure, renewable energy corridors and domestic solar manufacturing to strengthen long-term energy security.